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Dynamical Atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Decade I September, 2017

FORECAST DECADE II SEPTEMBER 2017

The air mass in Indonesia is still dominated by the Eastern Wind, except in northern Sumatra and northern Borneo. There is a wind bend in the western waters of central Sumatra to East Kalimantan that support the formation of rain clouds. Based on the Asian Monsoon Index Opportunities for the formation of clouds with the potential to reduce rainfall in the vicinity of western Kalimantan, central Sumatra and Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara. Positive SST anomalies predominate in the northeastern waters of Maluku and northern northern Papua, which tend to increase evaporation for rain cloud establishment.

Predicted dasarian rainfall, rainfall in low to medium range, except rainfall is still high (> 150mm / Das), around the south coast of Sumatra from Aceh to North Bengkulu, east western Kalimantan, western part of Sulawesi, Central West Papua, and the southern part of the Jayawijaya Mountains, Papua Low rainfall range (<50mm / Das) is found in southern Sumatra, Java, Bali Nusa Tenggara, South Sulawesi south of Buton Island, Muna Island and South Merauke Papua.

Areas with No Rain> 50 Days to 10 September: NORTH SUMATERA: Karo (53), DKI JAKARTA: North Jakarta (60), Central Jakarta (51) BANTEN: Serang (50), Tangerang (75) WEST JAVA : Bandung (52), Cirebon (53), Indramayu (74), Karawang (50), Majalengka (53), Subang (76), Sumedang (70), Purwakarta (71) DIY YOGJAKARTA: Bantul (75), Gunung Kidul (53), Kulon Progo (53), Sleman (53) CENTRAL JAVA: Banyumas (76), Blora (51), Boyolali (54), Brebes (53) Demak (50), Grobogan (74), Klaten (75) , Pati (51), Semarang (54), EAST JAVA: Bangkalan (125), Banyuwangi (80), Bojonegoro (53), Bondowoso (90), Gresik (103), Jember (81), Jombang (53), Magetan (51), Malang (75), Mojokerto (104), Sidoarjo (53), Probolinggo (104) BALI: Buleleng (89), Badung (57), Bangli (62), Karangasem (71), Klungkung (52) NTB : Bima (88), Dompu (89), West Lombok (62), East Lombok (123), North Lombok (81), Sumbawa (104), Kota Bima (66), NTT: Ende (78), Kupang City 145), East Manggarai (53), Rote Ndao (144), East Sumba (146), Timor Teng (107), East Flores (65), Kupang (163), Kupang (66), Nagekeo (77), Rote Ndao (129), South East Timor (116), North Central Timor (91), Alor (90), Belu (133) Southwest Sumba (62).

Potential areas of high rainfall DAS II September: opportunities around: Northern Part of Sumatra (Aceh, North Sumatra to West Sumatra including the islands of western Sumatra) north of Borneo, West and Central West, Toli-Toli, Western Gorontalo, Southern part of North Sulawesi, around Sofifi Halmahera Island, West Papua head section and around Jayawijaya Mountains.

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