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Dynamical Atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Decade II August, 2017

DECADE III AUGUST, 2017 FORECAST

• The air mass in Indonesia is dominated by Wind from the east, except in northern Sumatra. There are cyclonic patterns around West Kalimantan, and wind bends in central Sumatra and eastern Kalimantan supporting the formation of rain clouds, but are not supported with sufficient moisture to form rain clouds due to the weakening Asian monsoon and the stronger Autonomy Monsoon. Positive SST anomalies dominate around Maluku and Papua which tend to increase the chance of rainfall. Convective territory is present in the waters of northern Indonesia.
• Prediction of decadal of rainfall, Rainfall relative in low to medium range, except for northern part of western Sulawesi, and around Luwuk Central Sulawesi, western part of West and southern part of Jayawijaya mountains with high rainfall potential > 150mm / Decade, central and southern part of Sumatra, Java, Bali Nusa Tenggara, southern South Kalimantan, South Sulawesi and southeastern Southeast Sulawesi and southern part of Papua are dominated by low rainfall below 50 mm / Decade.
• Regions experiencing the day Without rain> 60 Days: West Java (Majalengka (66 days), DIY (Bantul (102 days) Central Java (Jepara (81 days), Blora (67 days), East Java, Bondowoso (69hari) Mojokerto (83 days) Probolinggo (82 days), Bangkalan (104 days), Bali: Buleleng (68 days), Karang Asem (66 days), NTB Bima (67 days), Dompu (68 days), East Lombok (105 days), Sumbawa (83 days), NTT: Kupang ), Rote Ndao (62 days), Belu (109 days), Sabu Raijua (108 days), South Central Timor (76 days), East Sumbawa (111 days), Alor (69 days).
• Areas with high rainfall potential DASARIAN I August: opportunities around: central part of central, northern, western and southeastern Sumatra, northern, central and southern Sumatra, north Bengkulu, eastern western Kalimantan, northern western Sulawesi, Luwuk, Toli Toli Central Sulawesi, parts of Central and North Maluku, West Papua, and central part of Papua around Jayawijaya mountains.

AUGUST, 2017 FORECAST

• Rainfall Prediction. Most of the rainfall is in the medium to high range (150-300mm / month). Unless Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara are dominated by low rainfall (<100mm / month). Rainfall is high around North Sulawesi, Maluku Islands and most of Papua. Rainfall predictions are predominantly Normal, except in NTT and Southern part of Papua, with the dominant nature of Normal Overhead.

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